Publications
Following publications have been announced by our department Coastal Climate and Regional Sea Level Changes. For further information please contact the marked authors resp. co-authors of the publications:
Krieger, D., Brune, S., Baehr, J., & Weisse, R. (2024): Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, doi:10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024
Abstract:
Extratropical storms are one of the major coastal hazards along the coastline of the German Bight, the southeastern part of the North Sea, and a major driver of coastal protection efforts. However, the predictability of these regional extreme events on a seasonal scale is still limited. We therefore improve the seasonal prediction skill of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) large-ensemble decadal hindcast system for German Bight storm activity (GBSA) in winter. We define GBSA as the 95th percentiles of three-hourly geostrophic wind speeds in winter, which we derive from mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) data. The hindcast system consists of an ensemble of 64 members, which are initialized annually in November and cover the winters of 1960/61–2017/18. We consider both deterministic and probabilistic predictions of GBSA, for both of which the full ensemble produces poor predictions in the first winter. To improve the skill, we observe the state of two physical predictors of GBSA, namely 70 hPa temperature anomalies in September, as well as 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies in November, in areas where these two predictors are correlated with winter GBSA. We translate the state of these predictors into a first guess of GBSA and remove ensemble members with a GBSA prediction too far away from this first guess. The resulting subselected ensemble exhibits a significantly improved skill in both deterministic and probabilistic predictions of winter GBSA. We also show how this skill increase is associated with better predictability of large-scale atmospheric patterns.
Bernier, N.B., Hemer, M., Nobuhito, M., Appendini, C.M., Breivik, O., de Camargo, R., Casas-Prat, M., Duong, T.M., Haigh, I.D., Howard, T., Hernaman, V., Huizy, O., Irish, J.L., Kirezci, E., Kohno, N., Lee, J.-W., McInnes, K.L., Meyer, E.M.I., Marcos, M., Marsooli, R., Oliva, A.M., Menendez, M., Moghimi, S., Muis, S., Polton, J.A., Pringle, W.J., Ranasinghe, R., Saillour, T., Smith, G., Tadesse, M.G., Swail, V., Tomoya, S., Voukouvalas, E., Wahl, T., Wang, P., Weisse, R., Westerink, J.J., Young, I., & Zhang, Y.J. (2024): Storm Surges and Extreme Sea Levels: Review, Establishment of Model Intercomparison and Coordination of Surge Climate Projection Efforts (SurgeMIP). Weather and Climate Extremes, 100689, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2024.100689
Abstract:
Coastal flood damage is primarily the result of extreme sea levels. Climate change is expected to drive an increase in these extremes. While proper estimation of changes in storm surges is essential to estimate changes in extreme sea levels, there remains low confidence in future trends of surge contribution to extreme sea levels. Alerting local populations of imminent extreme sea levels is also critical to protecting coastal populations. Both predicting and projecting extreme sea levels and require reliable numerical prediction systems. The SurgeMIP (surge model intercomparison) community has been established to tackle such challenges. Efforts to intercompare storm surge numerical systems and coordinate the community’s prediction and projection efforts are introduced. An overview of past and recent advances in storm surge science such as physical processes to consider and the recent development of global forecasting systems are briefly introduced. Selected historical events and drivers behind fast increasing service and knowledge requirements for emergency response to adaptation considerations are also discussed. The community’s initial plans and recent progress are introduced. These include the establishment of an intercomparison project, the identification of research and development gaps, and the introduction of efforts to coordinate projections that span multiple climate scenarios.
Weisse, R., Gaslikova, L., Hagemann, S., Heinrich, P., Berkenbrink, C., Chen, J., Bormann, H., Kebschull, J., Ley, A., Massmann, G., Greskowiak, J., Thissen, L., Karrasch, L., Schoppe, A., Ratter, B., & Wessels, A. (2024): Zusammenwirken von Naturgefahren im Klimawandel ist für die Nordseeküste zunehmend eine Herausforderung. Wasser und Abfall 26 (5), S. 38–45, doi:10.1007/s35152-024-1854-y
Auszug:
An der Nordseeküste spielt der Schutz vor Naturgefahren seit jeher eine wesentliche Rolle. Doch was ändert sich mit dem Klimawandel? Welche Szenarien sind denkbar und was passiert, wenn mehrere Extremereignisse wie Sturmflut, Hochwasser und Starkregen gleichzeitig auftreten? Und welche Maßnahmen können vorausschauend ergriffen werden? …
