Publications
Following publications have been announced by our Institute of Coastal Systems – Analysis and Modeling. For further information please contact the marked authors of the publications:
Stanev, E. (2023): Trajectories in Oceanography. Springer Oceanography, Springer Cham, doi:10.1007/978-3-031-33720-8
About this book:
This book presents the development of oceanography of European regional and coastal seas over the last 50 years. It describes the evolution of scientific practice alongside the technological development of measurements and computer modelling. Emphasis is placed on transformation of basic research into applied science and services. This reflects the growing public awareness of ocean issues. The recent advancements in the field of operational oceanography are presented as an important scientific response to the needs of environmental protection and sustainable development. The book could be of interest to scientists and students in various fields of oceanography, to practitioners in the field, and to the general readership interested in environmental sciences.
Koul, V., Brune, S., Akimova, A., Düsterhus, A., Pieper, P., Hövel, L., Parekh, A., Schrum, C., & Baehr, J. (2023): Seasonal prediction of Arabian Sea marine heatwaves. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL103975, doi:10.1029/2023GL103975
Abstract:
Marine heatwaves are known to have a detrimental impact on marine ecosystems, yet predicting when and where they will occur remains a challenge. Here, using a large ensemble of initialized predictions from an Earth System Model, we demonstrate skill in predictions of summer marine heatwaves over large marine ecosystems in the Arabian Sea seven months ahead. Retrospective forecasts of summer (June to August) marine heatwaves initialized in the preceding winter (November) outperform predictions based on observed frequencies. These predictions benefit from initialization during winters of medium to strong El Niño conditions, which have an impact on marine heatwave characteristics in the Arabian Sea. Our probabilistic predictions target spatial characteristics of marine heatwaves that are specifically useful for fisheries management, as we demonstrate using an example of Indian oil sardine (Sardinella longiceps).
Plain Language Summary:
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are prolonged extreme events associated with exceptionally high ocean water temperatures. Such events impose heat stress on marine life, and thus predicting such events is beneficial for management applications. In this work we show that the occurrence of MHWs in summer in the Arabian Sea can be skilfully predicted seven month in advance. Our prediction system benefits from the information of sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean in the preceding winter, among other aspects. Our predictions suggest potential for using climate information in fisheries management in this region.
